-13-10 – Soybean Complex Market Recap Report
September Soybeans ended up 17 1/2 at 1043 1/2, 1/2 off the high and 16 1/2 up from the low. November Soybeans settled up 15 1/2 at 1044. This was 15 1/4 up from the low and 3/4 off the high. December Soymeal closed up 0.5 at 296.7. This was 2.1 up from the low and 2.1 off the high. December Soybean Oil finished up 1.31 at 43.14, 0.07 off the high and 1.31 up from the low. November soybeans moved steadily higher overnight and into early mid session. The August contract, in contrast, expired at lower on the day. Meal was higher early in the day along with soy oil, but meal slipped to lower levels into early afternoon while soy oil made new highs for the day prior to the close, gaining sharply on meal in the process. Traders said that the surge in demand seen on this week’s export sales report has kept sellers at bay with some light support also coming from this week’s hot weather. However, one analyst noted that a cool down this weekend in the northern and NW Midwest makes weather a minor concern for now. This is especially true given yesterday’s unexpected bump in the USDA’s yield forecast to 44.0 bushels per acre from 42.9 in July.
Corn Market Commentary for 08-13-10
September Corn ended up 5 1/2 at 411 3/4, 2 off the high and 5 3/4 up from the low. December Corn settled up 5 1/2 at 427 1/4. This was 5 1/2 up from the low and 1 3/4 off the high. December corn posted moderate gains overnight and then traded at or above the overnight highs into early afternoon. Cash markets showed early firmness at the Gulf with traders noting light sales by farmers and good demand. Weather looks to cool into tomorrow in parts of the northern and NW Corn Belt. December corn pushed to near yesterday’s highs into early mid session in the face of a higher dollar. This follows a day of large export sales announcements by the USDA with ongoing hot weather in major growing areas of the US helping to provide support today. September Rice finished up 0.21 at 11, 0.03 off the high and 0.21 up from the low.
-13-10 – Wheat Market Recap Report
September Wheat ended down 10 1/2 at 702 1/2, 22 1/4 off the high and 2 1/4 up from the low. December Wheat settled down 9 1/2 at 734 1/4. This was 2 up from the low and 21 3/4 off the high. December wheat rallied overnight and then sold off from the start of the day session into the middle of the day session. The new crop July contract gained on September and December contracts during the day with KC and Minneapolis December contracts also gaining on Chicago. This may have been a function of the ending stocks news yesterday which showed expanding ending stocks for soft red wheat and tightening stocks for hard spring and red wheat. Trade was lighter today and the rush of tenders also slowed into the end of the week. Traders will be looking at the latest Commitments of Traders report this afternoon to see if managed funds continue to cover their formerly massive net short position in wheat. They maintained a small net short position on the most recent COT report, and this was the only net short position held by these large traders in any agricultural commodity market. There were no fresh sales announcements from the USDA this morning although European traders reported earlier this morning that Algeria had bought up to 200,000 tonnes of wheat on a tender that was listed for “at least 50,000 tonnes.” Russia’s agriculture ministry said today that the area planted to winter wheat may drop by one third this fall with farmers hoping to shift the land into spring grains next year. The FAO estimates that floods in Pakistan may have destroyed crops on 700,000 hectares. Although this includes some land planted to wheat, the devastated area also includedcotton, rice, corn and sugarcane. December Oats ended up 1 1/2 at 286 1/2. This was 2 up from the low and 6 off the high.
After reading today’s review,traders might want to take a peek at the commercial traders momentum. The Commercial Trader momentum can be tracked by using the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitment of Traders reports. Our idea is that, in a value driven commodity futures market no one knows fair value like the people who produce it or, have to use it. In fact, it is precisely their sense of value that provides the commodity market’s rhythmic meanderings that swing traders love so much. Let’s face it, producers know when their product is overvalue and it should be sold just as well as end line users know when they should be stocking up at low prices. Therefore, trader should be able to incorporate this valuable information into their future market education.
The daily commentaries provide a review of any reports released that day, a recap of each commodity’s traded price activity, an analysis of the factors that influenced price activity, and a look ahead at the next day’s schedule. CME Group provides market commentaries for corn, wheat, soybeans, silver and gold. The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
This blog is publicized by Andy Waldock. Andy Waldock is a financial advisor, analyst, broker, asset manager and traderfor Commodity & Derivative Advisors, located in Sandusky, Ohio. Therefore, Andy Waldock may have positions for himself, his family, or his customers in any commodity future market reviewed. The blog is meant to develop a dialogue and educate those with an interest in the commodity future markets. The commodity markets employ a high degree of leverage and commodity trading may not be appropriate for all investors. Investing in the commodity futures could result in considerable risk. If you are interested in reading other circulated articles, commenting on his writings or subscribing to Andy’s blog, please visit http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com, or if you have any questions, please call 1-866-990-0777.
